I'll say that all three of these contestants deserved to be there. Josh and Melanie because they have killer voices; Chris because he's an original with a great story. I'll be satisfied with any outcome. In terms of sheer vocal performance, Melanie deserves to win. She crushed both songs during the performance finale. She was also my choice before the night started to win the whole thing. If she doesn't win, it won't be her fault. She didn't lose it; someone else swooped in and stole it from her.
Which leads me to who I think will win after what I saw tonight. I think it will be Chris Rene. Three months ago when he auditioned with Young Homie, I said it was a "star-making performance." Vocally, he can't hold a candle to Josh or Melanie (and he surely knows that), so his best bet tonight was to show off his originality again. When he broke out a lyrically updated version of Young Homie, there was such a completely satisfying sense that we had watched and listened to a fully-realized story come full-circle that it seemed to overshadow the vocal prowess and performances of the other two contestants. I might be wrong, but I agree with Simon that this was a $5 million performance.
So I have conflicted thoughts and feelings. I thought Melanie was the best--and the audience favorite--and Josh was my personal favorite, but I think Chris Rene with his original song of redemption will win it all.
Update 12/22/11 at 10pm - My hot pick streak came to end tonight. Melanie definitely deserved to win. I think the voting public got it right. I had picked her to win over a month ago, but I was swayed by Chris' tremendous final performance last night. The lesson here is like what they tell about test-taking: go with your first best guess. Congrats to Melanie. She will have a great career.
