May Box Office Predictions: How Did I Do?

Back on May 1st, I predicted which movies would be on top of the box office for the coming month.  You can see that posting here, but here's how the month actually shook out (at least so far):

1.  Star Trek (so far: $223M)

Predicted: 1st.  

Actual: 1st.

2.  X-Men Origins: Wolverine (so far: $171M) 

Predicted: 2nd.  

Actual:  2nd.

3.  Up (so far: $137M and going strong) 

Predicted: 5th.  

Actual: 3rd (and may get to 2nd).

4.  Night at the Museum:  Battle of the Smithsonian (so far: $127M) 

Predicted: 4th.  

Actual: 4th.

5.  Angels & Demons (so far: $116M) 

Predicted: 6th. 

Actual: 5th.

6.  Terminator Salvation (so far: $105M) 

Predicted: 3rd. 

Actual: 6th.

So all in all, a good month of movie prognosticating, except for the flip-flop rankings of Up and Terminator.  Also, it looks like Land of the Lost is down the tubes, earning just $19 Million in its opening weekend.  By contrast, the buddy comedy The Hangover made $43 Million in one weekend with a whopping big $13,000 per screen average.  

Here's what I have learned from the month:

1.  Never ever bet against Pixar.  Ever.  A movie about an old man who floats his house to South America with a bunch of balloons and is accompanied by a boy scout, a giant bird, and a talking dog?  No problem.  Here's $137 Million worth of tickets in two weeks!  What was I thinking to put this movie in fifth place?!

2.  People punish petulance.  It's happened before, so it's no surprise that Christian Bale's tantrum cost the film some tickets.  Maybe lots of tickets.  The general perception is that many people were put off by his Prima Donna act.  And no one buys his Method Actor excuse for berating a crew member.

3.  J.J. Abrams rules the world.  His reboot of Star Trek earned the top of the box office heap because it was good, clever, and totally deserved it.  He's doing the most creative stuff on TV and in film and he's surrounding himself with the best people.

4.  Will Ferrell's blind following has disbanded.  Gone are the days when he could put out a lousy movie and have it rake it huge piles of cast.

5.  Sleepers are comedies.  Most summers have sleeper hits that are often quirky comedies no one was expecting.  Don't be surprised if The Hangover keeps going strong for a couple more weeks as buzz builds.